Amara’s law: why we overestimate short term value and underestimate long term value of behaviour change (and how to overcome it to create lasting change)

By: January 18, 2024

A new year brings a renewed sense of excitement and opportunity.  And for many people who prioritize their health this time of year often encourages declarations of health related changes for the coming year.  But we know these usually fail.  According to a TIME article from 2022 as many as 80% of people fail to keep these new year’s resolutions and only 8% of people with stick with them for the year.

 

Why is this?  And what can you do to prevent succumbing to this fate?

 

Behaviour change is challenging and it’s hindered by a cognitive bias that tricks us to overestimate short-term benefits and underestimate long-term gains.

 

This article outlines 3 key psychological factors that lead to this short term bias and handcuff us from making real lasting change; and highlights what you can do to overcome this bias.

 

Instant gratification

Our brains are wired to seek immediate rewards, a concept derived from evolutionary biology and evolutionary psychology.  Immediate benefits trigger the brain’s pleasure centres, reinforcing behaviours that provide instant gratification.  This bias makes short term benefits appealing and influences our decision making.

 

Temporal or Delay Discounting

Studies show that as human being we consistently prefer smaller, immediate rewards over larger, delayed rewards.  Delay discounting occurs at surprising rates with monetary studies where an individual may prefer say $50 now versus $100 7 days from now.  But delay discounting has been found to be much steeper, and thus much more problematic, in health related studies such as food choices, substance abuse and other health related behaviours.  This behaviour has been attributed to the brain’s struggle to project future outcomes accurately.

 

Inability to recognize and appreciate compounding effects

Contrary to our biased perception, the impact of behaviour change accumulates over time, leading to substantial, enduring benefits.  This often gradual process makes it challenging for us to recognize and appreciate the compounding effects.  Often this leads us to quit too early, as we don’t see the results.

 

 

Understanding the psychological mechanisms that lead to the overestimation of short-term benefits and the underestimation of long-term gains is essential.  Knowledge is power.

 

So what can we do to overcome these short term biases?

 

Shifting the focus from immediate rewards to long-term gains requires strategic habit formation.  In James Clear’s 2018 New York Times best selling book Atomic Habits that sold over 5 million copies worldwide, Clear argues that instead of focusing on working towards a goal, focus on creating and sustaining the habits required to achieve those goals.  Clear advocates that the habits are the compounding interest of self-improvement and changes that seems small and unimportant at first will compound into incredible results if you’re willing to stick with them for years.

 

Clear’s 4 laws of behaviour change are
1) make it obvious 

2) make it attractive

3) make it easy

4) make it satisfying

 

When it comes to getting stronger, set your specific goal.  “I want to improve my grip strength or increase my squat or be able to do more pull ups”.  But instead of focusing on loading up your squat bar as heavy as possible or doing pull ups to fatigue each session, focus on increasing your frequency of working that exercise.  In other words build the volume instead of the intensity.

 

Set a schedule, track your work outs and measure your progress.  With consistency in your volume, your capacity for increasing intensity will naturally follow.

 

To see how James Clear improved his squat from 175lbs to 350lbs in 16 weeks read here.

 

Want to improve your flexibility?  Same concept; stop aggressively hammering on your hamstrings and instead focus on setting a consistent schedule for working on your hamstring flexibility.  Say 5 minutes at the end of each workout or 5 minutes before you shower each morning.  Gentle to moderate sustained tension done consistently will eventually build better hamstring flexibility.

 

Want to increase your lean muscle mass, lose fat or increase bone mineral density?  Get tested at baseline, say a dexa scan or bodpod, so you can track your results over time.  Focus on consistently implementing the key strategies you know work: weight bearing exercise and simple dietary strategies (ie. whole foods vs processed foods, increasing protein intake, caloric restriction or supplementing with Calcium+Magnesium).

 

Want to manage your work, activity or stress related muscle tension?  Stop reacting when it reaches its peak and instead book regular maintenance (bi-weekly, monthly) appointments to proactively manage the tension.

 

Want to finally end the cyclical back pain, knee pain or shoulder pain that inevitably derails your life several times a year?  Put a plan in place that’s effective and sustainable.

 

Avoid being the guy or gal that gets overly excited about a flashy new product, a surging fitness trend or the latest super food or super diet.  These are distractions that reward our short term biases.

 

Consistency is king when it comes to your long term health.  Stick to focusing on the habits that lead you to key strategies you know work

 

The compounding interest of these healthy habits will inevitably pay off.

 

Here’s to a healthy and prosperous 2024!

 

 

 

 

Back to posts